4/1/2013: Russia gears up for shale boom; How big is the Utica Shale's potential?
Russia gears up for shale boom – “ Russia is gearing up for an oil boom on the same scale as the US, as the techniques that sparked the shale revolution are applied to Siberia’s deposits of unconventional oil, according to one of the country’s top oil executives. Leonid Fedun, vice-president of Lukoil, said Russia, the world’s second-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, will be able to maintain crude output of 10m barrels a day for years to come as output from western Siberia’s Bazhenov Shale offsets declines in the country’s mature oilfields. But he said such an outcome hinged on new tax breaks the government has promised for the industry. Ministers have proposed a waiver of Russia’s onerous mineral extraction tax for companies drilling in the Bazhenov. Mr Fedun told the Financial Times that President Vladimir Putin’s goal of keeping Russian oil production at 10m b/d until 2020 was “absolutely realistic”, “but only if these fiscal innovations are introduced”. Experts have long placed Russia at or near the top of the list of countries with the potential to replicate North America’s shale revolution. It has huge unconventional resources, a sophisticated oil industry and little of the environmental opposition that has blocked shale in some European countries. Analysts from Bank of America Merrill Lynch say the Bazhenov could pump 500,000 barrels a day – about 5 per cent of Russia’s current production – and bring the government some $7bn in annual tax revenue. Most of the large Russian oil companies – such as Lukoil, Russia’s biggest private producer, Rosneft and Gazprom Neft – have acreage in the Bazhenov and have launched projects to begin exploiting its resources.”” (Financial Times)
How Big Is the Utica Shale's Potential? – “Since the Bakken and Eagle Ford shales took the energy industry by storm a few years back, another energy play has slowly crept into the limelight. It's the Utica shale -- an up-and-coming play that has drawn comparisons with the prolific Eagle Ford of Texas. Like the Eagle Ford, the Utica is expected to have a vast prospective area, massive hydrocarbon potential, and three zones containing oil, dry gas, and natural gas liquids…Like the Marcellus, the Utica is composed of sedimentary rocks that contain potentially massive quantities of oil and gas. But unlike the Marcellus, the Utica is believed to contain a greater proportion of "wet" natural gas, which includes natural gas liquids such as butane, ethane, pentane, and propane. The play is also much deeper than the Marcellus, with much of the sought-after wet gas located at depths of 6,000 feet or less in the outer fringes of the formation…According to the first assessment from the U.S. Geological Survey, the results from which were announced last year, the Utica shale contains 38 trillion cubic feet of technically recoverable natural gas. That's a little less than half the recoverable resource potential of the Marcellus, which USGS estimates to hold around 84 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas. Development of unconventional oil and gas resources has already been hailed as a major source of job creation over the next several decades. As the Utica's potentially massive hydrocarbon reserves are gradually exploited, the play is expected to yield significant economic benefits for Ohio and for the country as a whole. According to a report by IHS, a leading global energy research and consulting firm, development in the Utica will catapult Ohio to the third spot in the list of the top states by energy-sector employment by 2035. The report forecasts that Ohio's unconventional oil and gas employment will surge to 144,000 by the close of this decade and come close to 275,000 by 2035.”” (Motley Fool)
For Illinois counties, fracking taxes could be too little, too late – “In Illinois counties with large Amish communities, a $50-a-year buggy license plate tax pays for repairs caused by horse hooves and buggy wheels cutting into roads'soft tar surfaces. Kelly Murray is trying to imagine how those same communities and others in southern Illinois will shoulder the costs of maintaining roads and bridges when 100,000-pound trucks loaded with fracking fluid begin rolling in to service fracking wells. Hydraulic fracturing consumes massive amounts of water along with sand and chemicals as drillers blast through shale rock in their hunt for oil and gas. Who's going to fix (the roads) if the county can't? Should that be on the taxpayers? Should that be on the people who live on that road who can no longer get to their homes?" said Murray, executive director of the Illinois Association of County Board Members, which assists the state's 102 counties. Under legislation in Springfield that would govern fracking, most tax dollars wouldn't reach communities until at least a year after drilling begins, according to an analysis performed for the Tribune. What's more, rural communities with fracking operations would receive a fraction of taxes that would flow into the state's coffers, according to the analysis. That's because county taxes on fracking wells would be capped at six barrels of oil a day, regardless of how much oil the well produces. That tax schedule, on Illinois' books for decades, was designed for conventional wells seen in farm fields. Most of those produce about 1 1/2 barrels of oil a day, according to the Department of Natural Resources. At its peak, an average fracking well yields more than 200 barrels per day and is expected to generate $19.3 million for oil producers over 10 years, assuming oil is priced at $85 per barrel. Under Illinois' proposed tax structure, a typical fracking well would generate $1 million in production and severance taxes over that decade. A little more than 70 percent of tax receipts would funnel to the state, with the balance going to counties where the oil is produced, according to an analysis by Headwaters Economics, a Montana-based research firm…n North Dakota, the Legislature has devoted a large portion of the latest legislative session working to get more money to areas affected by fracking. North Dakota has a budget surplus as it produces 740,000 barrels of oil per day, and it expects $5.2 billion in taxes over the next two years. But its state tax laws allow only $292 million to flow back to the 17 counties where the drilling is happening, said Cory Fong, North Dakota's tax commissioner. Legislation being hashed out would deliver an extra $455 million over two years, and an immediate $367 million for badly needed road repairs and construction.”” (Chicago Tribune)
Andy fracked into a corner – “Gov. Cuomo is paralyzed with indecision on “fracking’’ for natural gas because it’s a “lose-lose’’ situation where even Southern Tier residents who should benefit financially will be bitterly disappointed, a highly placed political source has told The Post. Cuomo, who has dithered for more than two years on whether to OK the drilling process, which is used safely in nearly 30 other states, fears that his planned “toughest-in-the-nation” regulations and low natural-gas prices have combined to make it unlikely major gas companies would make the investments needed to develop new wells, the source said. “His fear is that if he gives the go-ahead, nothing is going to happen, the gas companies won’t come in because of overregulation, and gas-price economics and the people [in the] Southern Tier will then say, ‘Look, Cuomo killed it another way.’ “Cuomo’s regulators plan to impose almost impossible restrictions, natural-gas prices are way down, and the governor knows that the less valuable ‘dry’ natural gas is in the [Southern Tier’s] Marcellus Shale, not the valuable ‘wet’ gas that the companies are going after now,’’ the source continued. “The drilling decision is, and has been all along, about what the governor can gain from it, and right now, he doesn’t see himself gaining anything, whatever he does,’’ explained the source, who has strong ties to Cuomo’s campaign contributors. After telling associates for nearly two years he believed natural-gas drilling could be conducted safely, Cuomo developed cold feet late last year in the wake of an increasingly aggressive “anti’’ movement led by environmental activists, including his former brother-in-law and uncle to his three daughters, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who say the process is dangerous. Cuomo, who has publicly claimed for three years — from when he began running for governor — that the “science and not the politics” would guide his decision, now maintains that he’s merely awaiting a final recommendation from state Health Commissioner Dr. Nirav Shah, supposedly expected within days. But few close to Cuomo believe that’s the case. Many say that the governor — who has taken a radical turn to the political left since the start of the year — is being guided by political considerations alone.”” (New York Post)



